This report presents a best-estimate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify the frequency of criticality accidents during railroad transportation of spent nuclear fuel casks. The assessment is of sufficient detail to enable full scrutiny of the model logic and the basis for each quantitative parameter contributing to criticality accident scenario frequencies. The report takes into account the results of a 2007 peer review of the initial version of this probabilistic risk assessment, which was published as EPRI Technical Report 1013449 in December 2006.

This report summarizes the results of EPRI’s multi-year research effort to assess cladding
performance under normal and hypothetical accident conditions of spent nuclear fuel
transportation.

The objective of this calculation is to determine the structural response of the 5-DHLW/DOE (Defense High Level Waste/Department of Energy) SNF (Spent Nuclear Fuel) Short Co-disposal Waste Package (WP) when subjected (while in the horizontal orientation emplaced in the drift) to a collision by a loaded (with WP) Transport and Emplacement Vehicle (TEV) due to an over-run. The scope of this calculation is limited to reporting the calculation results in terms of maximum total stress intensities (Sis) in the outer corrosion barrier (dCB).