Waste Package Flooding Probability Evaluation

The objective of this calculation is to evaluate the probability of flooding a waste package with seepage water. Disruptive events can affect the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) components and have the potential to allow an advective flow of seepage water to reach the waste package. The advective and diffusive flow paths into the waste package have the potential to result in water accumulation inside the waste package, which in turn can lead to a potentially critical configuration. This calculation will evaluate the following:
1) The probability of sufficient seepage to fill a naval or commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) waste package which has failed from seismic fault displacement to the extent of the free volume available, which is using a range from 100 to 4,000 gallons (0.379 to 15.1 m3) per container. Free volume is the void space which can be filled by water in the waste package. Due to the significant difference in diameter between the TAD and DOE canisters and the fact that multiple DOE SNF canisters are loaded in some codisposal waste packages, they are not considered in this evaluation.
2) The probability of advective water ingress into a waste package (not including igneous and seismic faulting events) over the 10,000 years following repository closure.
This activity supports the evaluation of features, events, and processes (FEPs) that could lead to waste package criticality. The intended use of these results will be in performing assessments of conditions necessary for criticality.