This report presents a best-estimate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify the frequency of criticality accidents during railroad transportation of spent nuclear fuel casks. The assessment is of sufficient detail to enable full scrutiny of the model logic and the basis for each quantitative parameter contributing to criticality accident scenario frequencies. The report takes into account the results of a 2007 peer review of the initial version of this probabilistic risk assessment, which was published as EPRI Technical Report 1013449 in December 2006.

The purpose of this engineering calculation is to estimate the frequency of misloading spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies that would result in exceeding the criticality design basis of a waste package (WP). This type of misload - a reactivity misload - results from the incorrect placement of one or more fuel assemblies into a waste package such that the criticality controls do not match the required controls for the fuel assemblies. An actual criticality event can not occur in a WP unless a moderator (e.g. water) is present.