Initial Waste Package Probabilistic Criticality Analysis: Uncanistered Fuel

This analysis is prepared by the Mined Geologic Disposal System (MGDS) Waste Package Development Department (WPDD) to provide an assessment of the present waste package design from a criticality risk standpoint. The specific objectives of this initial analysis are to:
1. Establish a process for determining the probability of waste package criticality as a function of time (in terms of a cumulative distribution function, probability distribution function, or expected number of criticalities in a specified time interval) for various waste package concepts;
2. Use the established process to estimate the probability of criticality as a function of time since emplacement for the uncanistered fuel waste package (UCF-WP);
3. Identify the dominant sequences leading to waste package criticality for subsequent detailed analysis.
The purpose of this analysis is to document and demonstrate the developed process as it has been applied to the UCF-WP.