This report presents a best-estimate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify the frequency of criticality accidents during railroad transportation of spent nuclear fuel casks. The assessment is of sufficient detail to enable full scrutiny of the model logic and the basis for each quantitative parameter contributing to criticality accident scenario frequencies. The report takes into account the results of a 2007 peer review of the initial version of this probabilistic risk assessment, which was published as EPRI Technical Report 1013449 in December 2006.

With the Department of Energy’s (DOE) recent submittal of a license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the development of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as a national nuclear waste repository moves one step closer to reality. An operating site at Yucca Mountain could receive between 38-106 rail shipments and 53-89 truck shipments annually over a period of 50 years.