The Total System Model (TSM) is a planning tool that estimates the logistic and cost impacts of
various operational assumptions in accepting radioactive wastes. Waste forms currently tracked
are Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel (CSNF), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear
fuel (DOE SNF), and defense high-level (radioactive) waste (HLW). The TSM uses a TSM
Preprocessor (TSMPP) to generate the cask loads and target dates for shipments from waste
sites. The TSM then tracks these wastes from pickup at the waste sites until repository

With the Department of Energy’s (DOE) recent submittal of a license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the development of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as a national nuclear waste repository moves one step closer to reality. An operating site at Yucca Mountain could receive between 38-106 rail shipments and 53-89 truck shipments annually over a period of 50 years.

Technical development on burn-up credit for spent LWR fuels had been performed at JAERI since
1990 under the contract with Science and Technology Agency of Japan entitled ‘Technical Development on
Criticality Safety Management for Spent LWR Fuels.’ Main purposes of this work are to obtain the
experimental data on criticality properties and isotopic compositions of spent LWR fuels and to verify burnup
and criticality calculation codes. In this work three major experiments of exponential experiments for

This report describes the calculation method developed for the projection of future utility spent nuclear fuel (SNF) discharges in regard to their timing, quantity, burnup, and initial enrichment. This projection method complements the utility-supplied RW-859 data on historic discharges and short-term projections of SNF discharges by providing long-term projections that complete the total life cycle of discharges for each of the current U.S. nuclear power reactors.

Confidence in the long-term safety of deep geological disposal, and the ways in which this
confidence can be obtained and communicated, are topics of great importance to the radioactive waste
management community.1
The technical aspects of confidence have been the subject of considerable debate, especially
the concept of model validation. It has, for example, been pointed out that it is impossible to describe
fully the evolution of an open system, such as a repository and its environment, that cannot be

This report describes a novel approach developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory
(ORNL) for the estimation of the uncertainty in the prediction of the neutron multiplication factor
for spent nuclear fuel. This technique focuses on burnup credit, where credit is taken in criticality
safety analysis for the reduced reactivity of fuel irradiated in and discharged from a reactor.
Validation methods for burnup credit have attempted to separate the uncertainty associated with

This paper draws on my experience as a reviewer of the scientific programs and performance assessments of the geological repository for transuranic waste at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico and the proposed repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. In addition, I have served on numerous committees of the National Research Council that have addressed many aspects of nuclear waste management.

This validation report supports the issuance of the Total System Model (TSM) Version 6.0 (Bechtel SAIC, LLC (BSC) 2007a) that is described in the TSM User Manual (UM) (BSC 2007b) and the TSM Pre-Processor (TSMPP) UM (BSC 2007c), and other supporting documentation in References BSC 2007d, BSC 2007e, 2007f, and 2007g. This report assumes the reader has detailed, working knowledge of the TSM functions and Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS) operations.

Japan’s spent fuel management and fuel cycle programs are now at a critical stage. Its first commercial-scale reprocessing plant, at Rokkasho Village, will soon start full-scale operation.